Aviation industry to receive 44,500 new aircraft costing US$ 2.7 trillion by 2042
The aviation section of the consultancy firm Cirium, Ascend has forecasted that the global passenger and freight market will require around 44,500 new aircraft, worth US$2.9 trillion for the next twenty years. This is not only to cope with the rising demand for air travel but to also replace almost all of the existing passenger fleet that is predicted to be retired from passenger services during the next two decades.
As the global aviation industry recovers from the pandemic, albeit disproportionately across the continents, aviation activity is forecasted to reach 2019 levels in October this year. Rob Morris, Ascend by Cirium’s Global Head of Consultancy, explained that the forecast indicates a positive long term outlook for aviation and that the industry is undergoing structural changes, but remains on course to return to traditional growth paths by 2025”.
He goes on to add “The global passenger fleet will be required to increase by around 22,000 aircraft to service passenger traffic, which we predict to grow 3.6% annually to reach 47,700 aircraft by the end of 2041.These new aircraft will be required to meet demand for air travel, but also to replace less efficient, older-generation types.”
The report suggests that Asia will account for over 40% of new deliveries. Spear headed by China which is forecast to have the highest annual passenger traffic growth rate at over 6% and account for 19% of deliveries in 2041, ahead of all other Asia-Pacific countries, with a combined share of 22%. North American and European airlines are projected to account for 21% and 17% of deliveries respectively. Middle East airlines will take 7% of deliveries. However, in value terms, this will account for 14% due to the rich mix of higher value wide body (twin-aisle) aircraft deliveries.
The two largest commercial aircraft manufacturers, Airbus and Boeing will dominate the market, delivering an estimated 80% of aircraft between them and collectively raking in 88% by value all the way through until 2041.
Close to 88% of the current passenger fleet is forecast to be retired from passenger service during the next 20 years. Freighters have longer useful economic lives, so approximately 70% of the current fleet will be retired by 2041.Overall, there will be some 19,000 retirements from the end-2021 passenger fleet, plus a further 2,500 aircraft that leave the passenger fleet via cargo conversion.
In the midst of all of the above, and the impact caused by COVID-19 which led to much younger aircraft being phased out, there is added pressure on airlines to switch to more environmentally friendly aircraft – one key element that will feature at the top of any agenda on future fleet planning.
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