The year ahead for Sri Lanka Tourism: mostly sunny with a likelihood of downfalls
Despite falling shy of around 50,000 visitors to achieve its goal of welcoming 1.55 million International visitors last year, Sri Lanka Tourism’s spirits remained high, and soared even higher, after it was reported that a total 25,619 visitors had arrived during the first four days in January 2024.
Flash Pack, a travel firm that arranges small group excursions for single travelers aged 30 and less, following a recent survey ranked Sri Lanka, the fourth-most popular destination for solo travelers in 2024. A destination that gives visitors a chance to experience a major travel trend: slow travel by train, when it states, “After a tumultuous few years, Sri Lanka has made a big comeback, and its iconic upcountry train routes are a major part of its appeal. With more U.S. travelers adding to an uptick in interest from U.K. customers this year, 2024 will be the moment when it all comes together and Sri Lanka once again rules the travel charts for slow, immersive adventure.”
Indeed a positive start to Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority’s (SLTDA’s) mission to attract 2.5 million International visitors to the island, during 2024. Furthermore, it plans to rake in US$ 4.6 billion from tourism this year, compared to the $ 2.1 billion it earned last year.
Only those at the upper echelons at Sri Lanka Tourism know the math’s on how the projected visitors and earnings from tourism goals were arrived at. They must have some strong reasons to predict 2024 arrivals to increase by 68% over that of 2023, and, for tourism earnings to swell by 119%, year-on-year.
Set ambitious but realistic goals
No one can be totally on the money with predictions, nonetheless, forecasting and realistic goal setting play a critical role in shaping the path ahead. Before looking into the future, it’s important to remember that the overall process to planning for the new year remains unchanged, with human guidance being the visionary judicator for how to implement strategies that will drive momentum – no matter how inconsistent the forecast-to-actual ratio turns out to be.
Cynical will probably say there’s still a big gap between action and intent and that in the end, several macro-trends will likely influence travel for the year ahead. For instance, climate and environmental considerations will feature more in future. The list is long and includes the era of unabated “revenge travel” perhaps coming to an end, and curtailment of trips by travelers owing to years of inflation and rising travel costs.
Other dynamics that come into play involve the shift in the pattern of Chinese travel, where rising unemployment and weak wage growth may dampen spending on foreign holidays – especially among a population where international trips have lost some lustre as a status symbol. The billion dollar question then is whether the Chinese tourists will look inwards or finally outwards in 2024?
The biggest global election year in history
Could an unprecedented number of elections globally influence who travels and when? In 2024, countries with more than half the world's population -over four billion people, will send their citizens to the polls. The next 12 months will see elections across every continent, including the US, Mexico, in eight EU member states and the UK, Russia , South Africa, Rwanda, Senegal, Azerbaijan, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, South Korea, Taiwan and Indonesia. Sri Lanka too is scheduled to hold Presidential and Legislative elections before September this year.
This then calls into question whether there will be an election-year slump for the tourist industry? Travelers may worry that the road to some destinations could be unstable and bumpy. The travel industry will have to find ways and means of getting a word in (marketing), at a time the elections frenzy grabs total media attention. And the fiscal uncertainty surrounding elections can knock sales down – costing millions of dollars in lost revenue.
Shafeek Wahab – Editor, Hospitality Sri Lanka, Consultant, Trainer, Ex-Hotelier
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