Post COVID : 50% of Colombo's restaurants may not re-open
Many believe that more than half of Colombo’s restaurants will not be able to resume operations because of the havoc wrecked by the coronavirus. The figure can get to be higher, if those that do re-open, fail to recognise that, ‘survival’ above all, should be their short to medium term goal.
In the past, Colombo’s dining-out landscape saw a new restaurant opening almost every week. Nearly all of them announced their arrival with a ‘big bang’. On the flipside, that noise quietly disguised the ‘closure’ of some recently opened restaurant, after it failed to make money. Even during the good times, the ‘here today…gone tomorrow’ occurred frequently in the tough food business. So do not expect any more grand openings…or reopening for that matter.
The public returning to sitting, elbow-to-elbow in a noisy bar, or going out in a crowd to dine at a restaurant will not happen until a vaccine for the novel coronavirus is readily available. And, at the earliest, that’s going to take more than a year. Until then, survival would require restaurateurs to re-calibrate their expectations and be in sync with those who ‘dare to dine’.
A survey done by the US National Bureau of Economic Research had restaurateurs tell researchers that there is a 72% chance of survival if the crisis had lasted one month. However, if it continues for 4 months, they reckon the chances of survival to drop to 30% and if it lasts for 6 months -15%.
If the recovery for full reopening is 6 months away, the few choices restaurateurs have are difficult ones. Do they all choose the ‘takeout and delivery’ path? If so, is it worth the trouble? Is dropping the haute cuisine menu in favour of less expansive, more casual food, a strategy that will work? After all, the idea that people are going to spend money in restaurants, after the whacking the economy has received, sounds preposterous.
The future does look uncertain and really anyone who is staying open is desperately doing so in the shrouded belief that they will make some money – because to close would mean you lose everything.
Walking into restaurants that open their doors again will be totally different. A restaurant where your temperature is checked before you enter the place, no table seating more than four, tables spaced six to eight feet apart, a disposable dinner menu or ordering via an app, masked waiters, half-empty dining rooms, the sound of silence may all be part of the new reality.
In this scenario, forget about squeezing in as many people as possible (there may not be enough either). Whereas, previously you operated for over five hours a night, the reduced capacity may mean a fundamental change in revenue and opening times.
Globally, one thing has not changed though. In the new normal there are no ‘leading actors’. Everyone connects with each other. What occurs in one place can have an impact on all others. It will be no different in Sri Lanka.
Shafeek Wahab – Editor, Hospitality Sri Lanka, Consultant, Trainer, Ex-Hotelier.
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