After COVID-19 will there be a COVID-23 or 25?
2021 began with the promise of hope…that of the rollout of the vaccine, as the industry struggles to overcome the ravages of COVID-19. The resurrection hopes lie on the revival of travel – domestic, regional and international. The recovery will be slow – more like an intoxicated person doing the lost shoe shuffle.
Leisure travel is expected to lead the way as ‘bottled-up’ desires, not excluding ‘revenge travel’, will signal early revival during the first three quarters of the year. The last quarter of 2021 can bring more optimism. Thanks to online meetings and work-from-home adaptations, corporate travel will take longer. The MICE market will make its presence felt in 2022.
As we speak, we are in the midst of another wave of the virus, including new variants of COVID-19 that are spreading faster. At the same time, vaccines are on the way. However, as access to the vaccine varies, some countries may reach herd immunity before a sufficient number of the population gets vaccinated.
Overall, hospitality’s recovery in 2021 will be akin to walking under a moving floor that can unexpectedly change its speed and direction. Be ready for a wide range of scenarios.
Many believe that the COVID-19 pandemic will eventually fade away. The economy will recover, and the hospitality industry will regain its footing and look forward with confidence to a successful, thriving ‘new normal’. I earnestly hope so. The fear of COVID-19 will fade as vaccine needles jab billions of arms. In addition, the history of disruptive events in the past couple of decades reveals that mass tourism tends to have a very short memory.
After 9/11, the experts predicted that travel would change dramatically, and New Yorkers would abandon New York in huge numbers, but that never materialized. For now though, people may avoid a teeming metropolis and head towards less populated travel destinations.
Eventually though, mass tourism will return to places like Venice which up until COVID-19 hit us, was flooded – not so much by the surrounding waters of the ocean, but by the relentless sea of tourists who invaded the destination.
We are living in a world that technology and transport has shrunk for our convenience. If the world was not global, what began in China would have remained in China. However, the coronavirus spread because people move rapidly around the revolving world. The spread of the disease is like co-joined twins – not only can travelers catch serious health hazards – they can also share their illness with others, along their journey.
Worryingly, just as fast as we adapt to an evolving ‘new normal’s’, the virus keeps mutating. Medical experts are already saying that we will have to live with a COVID-infused environment for several more years.
Stephane Bancel, CEO of COVID-19 vaccine maker Moderna has warned that the virus will be around “forever”. Infectious diseases experts reckon that COVID-19 will eventually remain as an endemic disease – meaning it will be present at all times, though likely at lower levels than it is at now.
Shafeek Wahab – Editor, Hospitality Sri Lanka, Consultant, Trainer, Ex-Hotelier
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