The travel scene after COVID-19
After the 9/11 attacks in 2001 and the fall of Lehman Brothers in 2008, which globally triggered economic and financial harm, the COVID-19 crisis has become the 3rd great disruption of the century.
As the shock of what COVID -19 has wrecked upon us settles in, people are surely wondering: when will things get back to normal? The answer is simple and one that goes beyond containing the virus: when enough of the world’s population is resistant to prevent the spread of the disease from person-to-person. This to me is the ultimate and uncompromising outcome and one that could take a year or two to happen.
The good news though, is that, as we navigate that path towards total eradication of COVID-19, we will see pockets of normalcy returning. In the next one to two months (no guarantee), we might be able to safely leave the house, to see loved ones, to return to our jobs, to start making some money and or do some fun activities. What we hopefully can anticipate is a gradual unfreezing of our currently frozen lives.
For starters, travel will mostly be to domestic destinations not too far from home. Big cities and public transportation may be avoided. Staycations and road trips will be preferred over flying. A fragile economy will mean the previously longer version of a vacation could turn into a long weekend – in short bursts. Airports will need to plan and place some measures to avoid people crowding in certain areas. These are some early indications that point towards the return of some degree of normalcy.
People will begin to trickle into restaurants favouring those with spaced out seating to maintain the social distancing equilibrium… even when seated. Set menus for breakfast, lunch and dinner would be the order-of-the- day. Buffets are best kept on the ‘back burner’ as most as diners would avoid ‘crowds’. However, should a buffet be laid out, a ‘be served’ rather than a ‘serve yourself’ arrangement will prevail. Bars may cap the number of customers allowed in enabling patrons to linger a while - rather than ‘gulp and go’. Nevertheless, average spend per person rather than number of customers, would still determine profitability.
Large crowds are going to be a thing of the past, for quite some time - certainly no music festivals and crowded beaches. However, sports leagues might resume but without the crowds, like TV shows sans studio audiences.
Things could move faster towards normalcy should a treatment – not a cure, for COVID-19 be discovered in the next three to four months. A treatment that could treat the symptoms and heal the infected swiftly would immediately ease the need for social distancing. The confidence to travel further would rise – especially with the intrepid and adventurous traveler.
Researchers around the world are trying to develop a vaccine at lightning speed. When a vaccine is found some of the extreme things we’re doing now can be dropped immediately. Removing barriers on the number of face-to-face encounters would be one of those things. Large crowded events will be back. Normalcy will be restored…I.e. the new normalcy.
Ilzaf Keefahs – writes on hospitality related matters that he is passionate about, and likes to share his views with hoteliers and customers alike.
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