2020 worst year for travel and tourism
The travel and hospitality industry is still feeling, reeling and kneeling from effects of the whacking from COVID-19. The current business environment has caused considerable pain and brought significant “pain points” to the hotel industry.
Vaccines no doubt will play a pivotal role – not only to offer health protection but also be the antidote to spur renewed demand for people to travel, stay in hotels and dine at restaurants.
However, like George Harrison sang “It’s gonna take time, a whole lotta precious time, it’s gonna take patience and time…” will hoteliers have the time to be patient? And will people have the patience to wait to return to work in the hospitality industry?
According to the United Nations World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO), International arrivals dropped 74% last year over 2019. Destinations across the globe welcomed a staggering one billion fewer international arrivals in 2020 when compared to 2019.
In terms of lost revenues caused by the massive fallout from COVID-19., UNWTO World Tourism Barometer estimates a loss of US$ 1.3 trillion in export revenues. This is more than 11 times the loss recorded during the 2009 global economic crisis.
The International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) reported that as seat capacity fell steeply last year, just 1.8 billion passengers took to the air in 2020, compared to 4.5 billion in 2019.
2020 could have been a total wreck had the full effect of COVID-19 come earlier than at the end of March. The bottom really fell off in April 2020. Then again, just when things seemingly appeared to get better, the second wave hit… wiping out the last four months of the year.
ICAO reckons that COVID-19 caused airlines to lose US$ 370 billion, which together with what airports and air navigation services providers failed to earn, (due to closures and restrictions), totals a near US$ 500 billion.
Meantime airlines will try to balance panic and logic as they continue to operate to places where financial opportunity exists. And it need not always include passengers. In fact, many airlines have survived purely on flying cargo.
The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC), warned last year that 174 million global travel and tourism jobs were at risk. However, in its latest analysis, WTTC predicts as many as 111 million jobs could be revived. This would still be 17% below 2019 figures accounting for 54 million fewer jobs in 2021 over 2019.
This best-case ‘scenario’ is based upon travel recovery commencing from late March, widespread vaccination programmes in place and a rapid adoption of comprehensive test-and-trace regimes, together with continued, strong international coordination from the public and private sectors. A more conservative assumption is the return of 84 million jobs, leaving the outcome, 25% below 2019 levels, with 82 million fewer jobs recovered.
UNWTO secretary general, Zurab Pololikashvili, said: “While much has been made in making safe international travel a possibility, we are aware that the crisis is far from over. The harmonization, coordination and digitalization of Covid-19 travel-related risk reduction measures, including testing, tracing and vaccination certificates are essential foundations to promote safe travel and prepare for the recovery of tourism once conditions allow.”
Shafeek Wahab – Editor, Hospitality Sri Lanka, Consultant, Trainer, Ex-Hotelier
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