Future-gazing and future shaping
Christopher Barnatt, a futurist, author, videographer and Associate Professor of Strategy and Future Studies at Nottingham University Business School describes what future gazing and future shaping is all about: ”the process of taking actions today to select and work towards the possible future we desire, our ultimate goal being to choose the best tomorrow.’’ The key to successful future gazing and future shaping is to obtain the best information today that will enable us to predict the most likely range of possible futures.
2022 has been something of a rollercoaster. In the employment sphere, the dawn of the year saw workplaces continuing to grapple with COVID-19 testing and self-isolation requirements, as well as amalgamating ‘away from office’ and hybrid working arrangements. Mid-way through the year, the declaration of bankruptcy by the island led to a huge cost-of-living crisis. It was the perfect storm, as operators faced fuel, supply and energy shortages including the omnipresent threat of imminent closure. Sadly, more tricky times lie ahead, with the government confirming tax rises and spending cuts and the ominous global warning of a prolonged recession.
What does 2023 foretell for Sri Lanka’s tourism industry? What then is needed to be done if there is to be a light at the end of the seemingly endless tunnel?
- The country must first and foremost be a ‘safe to travel’ destination – free of negative / cautionary travel advisories issued by other countries. This would enable travelers to make that decision to come here by catering to their sense of comfort and security.
- Health and safety when booking accommodations, although no longer a leading factor and distinct change from the past two years, remain a priority and that means, the fear of being stranded at a foreign location or contracting the virus will lurk behind tourists when making travel decisions. The demand for enhanced cleaning / hygiene protocols and self-service / contactless technology are definitely here to stay.
- The surge in travel in the post-pandemic climate can be attributed to two years of lockdowns and travel restrictions fueling a burning desire for consumers to make up for the absence of travel during that period and to celebrate the end of pandemic-related restrictions. For now, travelers may be prepared to treat themselves no matter the cost, even if it means booking a more expensive category from what they normally book. Hence the accelerated recovery of average daily rates (ADR) in hotels.
- Expect that to bottom out as the year progresses when quality becomes increasingly important along with value for money. As consumers begin to pay more attention to inflation concerns, getting the lowest price when booking a trip in the current environment will be top of the mind.
- The focus of value goes beyond prices – to making choices on other external factors such as sustainability, inclusion, and representation.
- The rising desire to travel is undeniable. Where to travel is increasingly encouraged by both online and offline sources. Friends and family is the popular ‘inner circle’ influencing source, followed by social media and travel reviews – pushing the age-old approach via travel agents and newspaper, magazine and TV advertising to the outer periphery.
- Notably, social media appeals as the most popular source of travel inspiration for the majority of Gen Z and Millennials.
- An unquenched question from most in the travel and tourism business is, when is China / the Chinese going to resume international travel? Catering to this large market needs is a challenge in itself. Is Sri Lanka ‘China ready’?
Remember that for most travelers, the journey is the destination. Travel is just as much about exploring along the way as what is on ones ‘itinerary’ and that includes getting to eat, to learn, to journey, to unwind and to connect.
'Fail to plan, and you plan to fail,' goes the old saying, and, in a post-pandemic world, effective planning is more important than ever.
Shafeek Wahab – Editor, Hospitality Sri Lanka, Consultant, Trainer, Ex-Hotelier
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